DOES THE ROAD TO THE WHITEHOUSE LEAD THROUGH MOSCOW? OR TBILISI?

OCTOBER SURPRISE OR OCTOBER REVOLUTION?

Recent American incitements in the former Soviet Republic of Georgia, potential incitement in Ukraine, combined with ongoing incursions into the former Soviet Union have brought predictable and understandable Russian responses.

American and Soviet conflict and brinkmanship was the zeitgeist of the World War II generation and their spawn, the Baby Boom generation. The Cold War ended in the temperate passion of bloodless revolution.

The Soviet Union fell and the Warsaw Pact dissolved. But while politics can change the "isms" (communism, capitalism, fascism, socialism, mercantilism), only continental drift can change geopolitical reality. Countries have spheres of influence that they jealously guard. Other nations impugn upon such regions at their own peril.

NEW GAME. SAME OLD POLITICS.

Russia and the Cold War stains that remain in the old mens' trousers may figure into this presidential election of 2008. The October Surprise is the caribou in the room in this election. Will the Rove-Cheney administration gin up an incident in Georgia or Ukraine to deceive the electorate into believing that the Cold War again smolders? Will the administration crook the game to install McCain as its successor?

In two recent posts the Author has addressed the resurging Russia. In "Welcome Back to the Real World Order", the Author, quoting a piece by George Friedman, addressed the unjustified risk that the US takes in meddling in Russian affairs. In the face of failed US machinations in Georgia, a new zeitgeist emerges:

The Russians have now proven two things. First, contrary to the reality of the 1990s, they can execute a competent military operation. Second, contrary to regional perception, the United States cannot intervene. The Russian message was directed against Ukraine most of all, but the Baltics, Central Asia and Belarus are all listening. The Russians will not act precipitously. They expect all of these countries to adjust their foreign policies away from the United States and toward Russia. They are looking to see if the lesson is absorbed. At first, there will be mighty speeches and resistance. But the reality on the ground is the reality on the ground.

And in "Winning the Cold War-Losing the Oil Imports", the Author described the current reality. Russia has petro energy, and lots of it. The US uses petro energy, and doesn't have much of it. Feel the game board tilting?

ROADS TO MOSCOW. WILL THEY EXTEND TO BRUSSELS?

Yesterday was the 63rd birthday of singer-songwriter Al Stewart. One of Stewart's most memorable songs is "Roads to Moscow" from the 1973 album "Past, Present, Future". The song is about the German Invasion of Russia in World War II and Russia's eventual push back through Germany to the Elbe River.

Russia bore the brunt of Nazi blitzkrieg. Moscow nearly fell to the enemy. Many millions of Russians died in the war. It is likely that if Russia had fallen to the Nazis, the US, British and other allies could not have removed Hitler from power. The freedom of the Western World was won with Russian lives. The corpses alongside the Roads to Moscow paved the path to Nazi destruction. And world freedom.

Below is a video of "Roads to Moscow", with haunting video images.

ICE, FIRE AND EMBITTERING CYNICISM IN THE DESERT OF THE REAL!