THE MOTORCYCLE STORY THAT WON’T DIE.

THE MOTORCYCLE STORY THAT WON’T DIE.
UNLIKE THE MARKET DEMOGRAPHIC FOR HARLEY-DAVIDSON MOTORCYCLES.

Hardly a month goes by without an article predicting the impending decline of the Harley-Davidson motorcycle company. The Author has frequently written about this subject in this blog. The latest story comes from Yahoo News, “Uneasy Rider”[i].

Why will Harley-Davidson sales decline dramatically over the next 20 years? Let’s look at some of reasons from a traditional business and economic analytic perspective.

1. Harley-Davidsons are overpriced. Yes, relative to Japanese and Victory (American made) cruiser motorcycles, Harley-Davidsons are grossly overpriced.

2. Harley-Davidsons are technologically obsolete. Yes, relative to Japanese and Victory motorcycles, and nearly every European motorcycle, Harley-Davidsons are obsolete and grossly underperforming. Their engine design has been obsolete since the early 1950s.

3. Harley-Davidsons do not incorporate innovative styles and designs into their motorcycles. True, Harley-Davidsons are built to reflect designs originally developed in the 1950s and 1960s by back-alley cutting torch jockeys.

The reasons proffered above are black letter, textbook reasons that an analyst would offer to explain the impending decline of Harley-Davidson motorcycle sales. They are prototypical reasons that products and businesses fail in the marketplace. And all of the conditions described above are extant conditions. Harley-Davidsons are overpriced, obsolete lead sleds from a bygone era.

But there is one catch. These are NOT the reasons that Harley-Davidson motorcycle sales will inexorably decline. Here in America, the land of misinformed mythology and Nativist nonsense, American-made monstrosities outsell modern machinery. But not for much longer.

HARLEY-DAVIDSON OWNERS ARE CLOSER TO THEIR FIRST CATHETER THAN TO THEIR FIRST MOTORCYCLE

The Yahoo article sets out the Harley-Davidson conundrum fairly well:

As the Baby Boomers who transformed Harley's rumbling, lumbering bikes from countercultural totems into American icons enter their senior years -- the leading edge of the generation is turning 60 this year -- they're increasingly in the market for knee and hip replacements, not Harley's notoriously bone-shaking bikes.[ii]

It would be fun to gloat over Harley-Davidsons problems, and it is. But as a business problem, it points to a larger problem for many brands. The question poised is:

"How do they do it without hurting existing customers and destroying the brand?" says Geoff Meredith, the president of Lifestage Matrix Marketing, a California consulting group that specializes in aging baby boomers and has worked with Levi's. "That's the $64 million question."

BOOB JOBS, BOB JOBS, AND BEERGUTS

Strategies that Harley-Davidson is exploring are marketing their relics to women, blacks and Hispanics. The women’s motorcycle market is exploding. Some figures show that 1 in 10 motorcyclists are women. But whether they will flock to the Nativist and Sexist Harley-Davidson “lifestyle” is an open question. Many Harley-Davidson gatherings are as much strip show and wet T-shirt contest as cyclist assembly. (Will eagles in thong underwear be next?)

The top event for women at Daytona Bike Week is not a female motorcycle race but scantily clad women wrestling in coleslaw, an event that only comedian Emo Phillips could appreciate.[iii]

DUCATI ATTRACTS MANY FEMALE BUYERS

Ducati has had success attracting female buyers. Many women choose the Ducati Monster. The Monster is a rider-friendly machine with good performance, value and styling. On the Ducati website, Ducati.com, there is a section dedicated to women Ducatista called “Desmo Women”[iv]. Ducati also hosts special track days for women and other events. Ducati also supports women motorcycle racers. And the Desmo Women section features an article on Vicki Smith, the president of Ducati.net, the leading Ducati chat room and web community.

ALL BRANDS ARE WELCOME, BUT THEY COMPETE ON THE BASIS OF PERFORMANCE, IN THE DESERT OF THE REAL!

[i] ttp://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060315/
od_nm/leisure_harley1_dc;_ylt=AuKcPsrusWwMlPT_1tcXegMSH9EA;_ylu=
X3oDMTA5aHJvMDdwBHNlYwN5bmNhdA--
[ii] “Uneasy Rider”.
[iii] For Emo Phillip’s coleslaw recipe, go to: http://www.emophilips.com/by/191
[iv] http://www.ducati.com/ducatiworld/women.jhtml