CHRISTMAS IS COMING, YOUR GOOSE IS GETTING GOUGED.

BUT BETTER YOUR GOOSE GET GOUGED THAN YOU, EH?

Christmas, really the entire distended Holiday Season in general, brings out a wide range of emotions in people. Happy people are happier. Depressed people are more depressed. Harried people are more harried. Secular Jews double dip with both Hanukah and Christmas.

Cynics and economists brood more as they take stock of what has generally gone wrong in the preceding 11 months. And somewhere the Grinch plots his revenge, Scrooge does an Excel spreadsheet (a pirated copy of Excel) to figure out how much he saves by eschewing Christmas, and Festivus revelers vomit down the backs of sofas.

December 2007 will be no different.

ECONOMIC PICTURE IS MIXED.

It is hard to compile a clear sense of the economy as we near the close of 2007. Third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 4.9% clip, far above the 3.2% annual average, and the more generally dismal growth rates of the last seven years.

But some forecasters predict low GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2007.

Unemployment remains relatively low, although wage growth is stagnant. Even as productivity rises.

Inflation is high and oil is at record levels. The cost of a Thanksgiving dinner in 2007 was up 11% from 2006. The main cost driver was the price of turkeys. Feed costs were up. Another reason to go Vegan.

However, the 12 Days of Christmas Index (the cost to purchase all of the items and give them to your true love) was up only 3.1% from 2006, mainly driven by the cost of gold for the “rings and the rise in the minimum wage for workers. Somehow, the Author does not believe his motorcycle would appreciate “two turtle doves and a partridge in a pear tree” as tokens of affection But he acknowledges that his inamorata is a bit different from the love objects of non-motorcyclists.

The big news of 2007 was the subprime mortgage collapse and the attendant problems in the credit markets in general. That has yet to cascade through world economies. The Author’s post from December 11th addresses how networks of risk-reducing mechanisms may actually raise the risk to the entire system

DON’T FORGET THE DOLLAR’S DECLINE.

Oh, yeah, the dollar is down against major currencies and at record lows against the ascendant Euro. In 10 years or so, the Author believes the Euro will be the dominant world currency. But markets don’t care much about opinions.

But it is not all bad with the dollar. A falling dollar makes American goods and services cheaper for foreign buyers. That effect has already been noticed with rising exports and a slight shrinking of the massive trade deficit.

AND WE CANNOT FORGET THE STOCK MARKET.

The S&P 500 index and the NASDAQ index have ecked out small slight gains in 2007, but both are lower than the record close in 2000.

The S&P 500 began the year at 1418 and closed 12.12 at 1486. The 2000 S&P high was 1498.

The NASDAQ began the year at 2423 and closed 12.12 at 2671. This is far off the 2000 record high of around 4000.

For momentum based, relative strength investment mechanism like the Author’s 2007 posed challenges. Trends whipsawed and reduced both short and long gains.

THE YEAR IN FILM. AT LEAST THE AUTHOR’S YEAR.

For numerous reasons, the Author did not see many films at the Guild Cinema in Albuquerque. This was not due to the quality of films, which was stellar, but personal reasons. Czech Dream was a real pleasure, and the midnight movie screening of “Fantastic Planet” was well, (you guessed it) fantastic.

But perhaps the best experience was the Veteran’s Day screening of “The Best Years of Our Lives.” The Author considers this one of the ten best American films.

There is an emotional depth, a level of frankness, and a realistic and guarded optimism in the film that was rarely portrayed in Haynes Code Era Hollywood. One suspects that the mammoth footprint of the war upon all of America and the emotional unwinding of the war provided MGM some leeway in presenting a frank and direct look at post-World War II America. And it was a darn good look.

Just as Americans annually watch “It’s a Wonderful Life” for Christmas and “Halloween” for Halloween, Americans should watch “The Best Years of Our Lives” on Veterans Day.

THE YEAR ON TWO WHEELS.

Australian Casey Stoner led Ducati to a victory in Moto GP. And Ducati has released a replica of a Moto GP race bike, the Desmodeci. At 200 horsepower and a $72,500 price tag, it is not a machine for the poor or timid. A rich and timid Desmodeci purchaser? That would be an abomination.

The Ducati 1098 Superbike replaced the 999, but not the Author’s yellow 999.

Buell, the sport bike “division” of Harley Davidson, is introducing the 1125r, the first large displacement Buell with a modern engine. The engine is a water-cooled 60°V-twin manufactured by Rotax. Early reports are mixed, but it is a major and welcome step for the American manufacturer.

Suzuki GSXRs and Hayabusas continue to get faster. Same with Kawasakis. Triumph sells more and more bikes (Up 10% in 2007). SQUIDS and OMMELETs (OMMLET(TM)“Old Male Motorcyclists Lacking Experience and Training”)continue to splash skulls and wad up perfectly good motorcycles.

STILL HOPE FOR THE HOOLIGANS?

Motorcyclists are a fickle and finicky bunch. Many exhibit sociopathic traits or symptoms of borderline personality disorder. A few are downright crazy.

And motorcyclists will always have something to unjustly deride and irrationally promote. Perhaps our progeny are fortunate we are more frequently culled from the gene pool than average folks. But the hooligan in the Author knows that there will always be a new crop of kids that are compelled by adrenalin or whatever else scrambles their brains to twist the tail of anything with two wheels and a motor. And that will make all the difference.

ALL’S QUIET ON THE WAR ON CHRISTMAS FRONT. AT LEAST IN THE DESERT OF THE REAL!