ISN’T THERE A CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHT TO CHEAP OIL?

SOME AMERICANS THINK THAT CHEAP OIL IS IN THE TEN COMMANDMENTS

Americans conduct their affairs as if there were a constitutional right to cheap gasoline. Gas hits three dollars a gallon and half of Ohio wants to nuke Saudi Arabia. Oily politicians want to tap the strategic petroleum reserves. Half of the people in Clinton County, Indiana buy kerosene space heaters.

But does anybody buy a smaller vehicle, take public transportation or park the GM Subdivision in the driveway and ride their bike to the store? Like, dude or dudette, could there be a lesson here? Could you maybe reduce your demand for oil and watch prices fall? Or could you, like say, recognize that the fossil fuels won’t last forever? Could you maybe pull your face out of the rearview mirror and see the situation that is developing?

WE OUGHTA’ SHOW THEM IRANIANS JUST LIKE WE SHOWED THEM IRAQIS.

Right now, oil is at about $65 per barrel. Oil industry exports say that this price includes about a $6.50 a barrel “premium” due to “jitters” about the Iranian situation[i]. The Iranian situation, for any reader who might agree with the above heading, is that Iran has been referred to the U.N. Security Council for recent failures to abide by International Atomic Energy Association protocols and requests. Iran states that it seeks to enrich uranium for “peaceful”, energy-related purposes. It likely seeks nuclear weapons and is reported to be six to nine years from developing these weapons.

Iran’s adversary, Israel, has over 200 nuclear weapons and refuses to admit even the existence of its nuclear program. The only other nuclear-armed Middle Eastern nation besides Israel, the US, has many thousands of nukes. The Author considers the US a Middle Eastern nation because its troops seized and continue to occupy Iraq. And also because the US is girding for an indeterminate long-term military and geopolitical stay. So that is the political cesspool in which the world finds itself. Iran may yet back down or reach an accord. But the price will be dear. Iran already has strong political and military ties with the two largest Shia political parties in the Iraqi “government”. It has emergent ties with China and Russia. And the US has little leverage. A foreign policy disaster of the Bush government’s own making.

SO BACK TO OIL PRICES

In the CNN article cited below, it is predicted that any military action against Iran will move oil to $75 per barrel. But if Iran stops shipping its oil (4 million barrels per day), about 5% of world supply, prices will likely go to $135 per barrel[ii]. Think what this means. The world oil supply is so tight that a 5% reduction in supply will double prices. Supply and demand will of course find an equilibrium price as demand falls and as a little more supply comes on line. But any way you parse it, oil is inexorably moving up in price. And then what happens?

ITS ALL THEM DAMN ENVIRONMENTALISTS FAULT.
IT’S A CONSPIRACY. THEM OIL COMPANIES IS ALL IN ON IT.

Heard the above before? Both these speakers need, well, politely corrected. So show them this post. The Author has proposed solutions. In the blog of January,
, the Author proposed that gas be pegged to a conservation parity price of $3 per gallon. In retrospect, the Author would raise that price to $4 per galloon. The difference between the market price of gas and the conservation parity price of $4 per gallon would be taxed and directed to, among other things, alternative clean energy technologies. If oil rises, taxes would be reduced. If oil falls, taxes would go up. But the price would always be pegged to a $4 conservation party price. This price would be adjusted occasionally.

The link to the January post is: http://desertoftherealecononomicanalysis.blogspot.com
/2006/01/vespas-of-world-unite.html


THINK SIX GENERATIONS AGO, THINK SIX GENERATIONS AHEAD.

The Author has read that indigenous American peoples project the results of their actions six generations into the future. How will what we do today affect our children of six generations forward? And how have the actions of our six degrees of forbearers affected us? Did those then-dominant Europeans think of us when they acted upon the land and themselves?

Those questions will be left to the readers. Since about the 1830s, European cultures began the mining, extraction and use of fossil fuels. Energy stores that took hundreds of millions of years to form. In about 180 years, how much fossil fuel is left? 1/3? ½? ¼? How many have been killed, wounded, oppressed in the wars to control this supply? How many more?

“Every word has an echo. So does every silence”. Jean-Paul Sartre.

IT’S YOUR TURN TO THINK ABOUT THE QUESTIONS IN THE DESERT OF THE REAL!

[i] http://money.cnn.com/2006/02/07/news/international
/iran_oil/index.htm?cnn=yes “Will Iran Dispute Push Oil to $130 per Barrel?”, CNN, February 7, 2006. For more delightful scenarios that experts predict could take oil to as high as $262 per barrel, see:
http://money.cnn.com/2006/01/27/news/international/
pluggedin_fortune/index.htm
[ii] If Iran mines the Straits of Hormuz or takes other military action in the gulf, oil will rise even more.